Andy Ray Picks the 2024 Oscars
Last year, the Motion Picture Academy rewarded the sweeping epic “Oppenheimer” with most of its top honors. I realize the academy doesn’t often like to repeat itself, but I believe this will be the year for the sweeping epic “The Brutalist.” How can I be so sure? I’m not, but in 1964 and ’65, they awarded two back-to-back musicals as Best Picture – “My Fair Lady” and “The Sound of Music.” Both were deserving. Same holds this time around.
Oscar for Best Picture
Now before we begin, let me reiterate one of my beefs with the academy – and there are many, but this is a big one. They nominate ten films for Best Picture, but only five for Best Director. Since the Best Picture winner almost always comes from the Best Director list, we can essentially eliminate five of the ten Best Picture nominees. I guess their inclusion is sort of a “pat on the back, better luck next time” thing.
In any event, of the five films nominated for both Best Picture and Best Director, my choice is Brady Corbet’s sweeping epic “The Brutalist.” The one I could watch over and over again is Sean Baker’s “Anora,” but I must admit “The Brutalist” is the better picture and deserves the honor.
What will the academy pick? If I were a betting man, I’d say “The Brutalist.” It’s just simply that good. A long and involved original story, very well acted, and set against the backdrop of Post-WWII American history. It has the feel of an “important” film.
There is a strong chance, however, that the academy will choose Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Perez” – not because it’s a better film than “The Brutalist” (It isn’t) but because the lead character is transgendered (and is played by a transgendered actress). We all know the academy often uses these awards to make a political point, and selecting “Emilia Perez” as Best Picture would do exactly that. I don’t like the idea of basing winners on “statements.” Having said that, “Emilia Perez” is an excellent film, and is a strong contender regardless.
Oscar for Best Director
I’m going to stay with Brady Corbet here. I realize “The Brutalist” is his first big budget film (as a director), but it is simply the best picture of the year, and one of the best so far this decade. Perhaps I’m giving the academy too much credence here, but I think they’ll pick him too. They like important period dramas. Remember “Oppenheimer” last year? I think this is the year of “The Brutalist.” Now, they may split their winners here and go with Jacques Audiard for “Emilia Perez” (per the aforementioned political statement), but I really believe Corbet wins right along with his film.
Oscar for Best Actor
Since we’re discussing “The Brutalist,” let’s transition to the Best Actor category, where Adrien Brody would have to be considered the front-runner for playing the protagonist in Corbet’s film – even though he’s already won previously. I would have to agree with that sentiment, as Brody was absolutely magnificent. He’s the proverbial glue that holds this long, involved film together, and he plays the part like a lead actor – not necessarily that he exudes confidence at every turn (He doesn’t), but that he gives the impression that this film is about his character; that we should care what happens to him. That is the mark of a brilliant lead performance, and Brody rings the bell.
I also loved Colman Domingo in “Sing Sing,” but I fear not enough people saw that fascinating true story of a prison theatre troupe that performs for other prisoners as a form of therapy.
There’s an outside chance – I’d call it way outside – that Timothee Chalamet takes home this trophy for his portrayal of singer-songwriter Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown.” However, this is Chalamet’s first “adult” role. He’ll have plenty of other opportunities to win this award. Furthermore, Edward Norton will be the winner for this film.
Oscar for Best Supporting Actor
Okay then, let’s go there. Norton’s Pete Seeger is the best performance in “A Complete Unknown,” even though this is a film about Bob Dylan. Dylan is so inexpressive, mumbly, and downright rude to others that any film about him practically begs for another character through whose eyes we can experience Dylan. Enter Norton as Seeger. As the sunny, eternally optimistic folk legend, Norton’s character is the complete antithesis to Chalamet’s. Norton’s character is not the lead, but it’s the rudder (or anchor) that we need in order to process the understated genius of Dylan.
Norton is my personal choice, and I also think the academy will choose him. He’s been turning in very fine work for many years, and an Oscar is long overdue. I believe this is the easiest call of the year, even though it’s a strong category. Kieran Culkin was excellent as the annoying cousin in the small film “A Real Pain,” and Russian actor Yura Borisov turned in a fabulous performance as the in-over-his-head thug in “Anora.” Guy Pearce is also long overdue for a win, but his performance is not the best in “The Brutalist.” In fact, he plays it somewhat over-the-top.
Oscar for Best Actress
Now, let’s turn our attention to the women. And here’s where I believe the academy will make its “statement” in favor of acceptance of those who are transgendered. Expect this statuette to go to transgendered Spanish actress Karla Sofia Gascon, who plays the title character – first as a man, then as a woman – in “Emilia Perez.” The irony is that the character isn’t necessarily transgendered by choice, but rather as a means to disappear. Prior to re-emerging as Emilia, the character is a Mexican drug lord who fakes his own death. It’s an excellent performance in an excellent film. Gascon is also my preference. I can’t believe how much I’m agreeing with the academy. Of course, my predictions could be all wrong, but I feel pretty confident this year.
Having said that, I’ve heard some of Gascon’s old emails have surfaced since her nomination. These emails are apparently disparaging to Muslims and African Americans. If this hurts her chances with the academy, I’ll say the winner then becomes either Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres, so great as the strong yet subtle family matriarch in “I’m Still Here,” or Demi Moore in “The Substance,” if for no other reason than she’s never won before. I personally try to mentally filter out what I read on social media. Based on the performances alone, my choice is still Gascon.
Oscar for Best Supporting Actress
If the academy has second thoughts about Gascon, they can still make their proverbial statement here by honoring Zoe Saldana as Emilia’s attorney (and personal “fixer”) in “Emelia Perez.” My problem is that Saldana is in the wrong category. Her character is every bit as much a lead character as Gascon’s.
And even though I agree that Saldana is pitch-perfect in “Emilia Perez,” my personal choice here is for Felicity Jones as Adrien Brody’s understated yet strong wife in “The Brutalist.” Jones deserved to win a decade ago for “The Theory of Everything.” She also deserves it here. I say the academy awards Saldana, no matter what they do with Gascon in the Lead Actress category. There’s an extreme outside chance for this one to go to Monica Barbaro, who played folk singer Joan Baez in “A Complete Unknown.” But Barbaro is basically unknown. Like Chalamet, she should have plenty of opportunities going forward.
Screenplay Oscars
Here, my choice (and I believe the academy’s too) will be for Jacques Audiard and his writing crew for adapting Audiard’s own opera libretto “Emilia Perez,” which in turn is based on Boris Raszon’s novel “Ecoute.” As far as the academy is concerned, they can bestow this honor on “Emilia Perez” without awarding anyone who has made disparaging comments on social media. It’s my pick simply because it’s the best adapted screenplay of the year. And by far.
It’s a musical, yes. But the songs are used to let us experience the inner feelings of the characters, rather than to advance the story. That’s an interesting take on the musical format. Furthermore, “Emilia Perez” wouldn’t have to be a musical in order to succeed as an intrinsically interesting piece of work. And this screenplay reminds me somewhat of Simon Beaufoy’s original screenplay for the 2008 film “Slumdog Millionaire,” in that we’re never certain exactly where the story is going. That makes for a very interesting ride.
For original screenplay, I’ll say the academy picks Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold for “The Brutalist.” And while that’s certainly an excellent choice, this film does follow the mold of a grand-scale historical epic film. My personal choice here is for Sean Baker’s completely original “Anora.” The performances are great, but the real star here is the writing – even down to the somewhat unexpected conclusion. “Anora” reminds me of early Quentin Tarantino, in that we’re never exactly sure where we’re headed, but we’re sure enjoying the ride!
Oscar for Best International Feature Film
This one’s an easy call for the academy. Not only did they nominate Walter Salles’ “I’m Still Here” in this category, but they also nominated it for Best Picture. Since that one’s probably going to “The Brutalist,” “I’m Still Here” – the true story of a former Brazilian congressman who was captured and killed by the brutal dictatorship in 1971 – is the shoo-in for this category.
But my pick is for Mohammad Rasoulof’s “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” a film about an Iranian bureaucrat caught between rubber-stamping executions for the brutal dictatorship and the desires and wishes of his family. It’s a very similar story to “I’m Still Here,” but this one carries a greater sense of urgency because the brutal dictatorship is in power now. The Brazilian military dictatorship ended years ago. “I’m Still Here” is a riveting drama from an historical perspective, but “Sacred Fig” is current. Furthermore, most worldwide audiences have no real conception of the repression and barbarism of the Iranian regime. Rasoulof opens our eyes. Unfortunately, this film (along with the rest of his work) has resulted in his escape from Iran. If he’s ever caught in Iran again, he will be executed. Can’t say the same for Salles.
Conclusion
This will be a big year for “The Brutalist,” and that’s fine by me. It was at the top of my Top Ten list for 2024. I’m also expecting a big night for “Emilia Perez,” another of my Top Ten. Even if the academy shuts out Gascon, the film will still do well. And while I never support bigoted online comments against anyone, I don’t believe that should hinder Gascon’s chances. I believe the performance should be judged – not the person. After all, the academy was able to differentiate between Jane Fonda the actress and Jane Fonda who may have harmed American POWs during Viet Nam. They should do the same with Gascon.
Andy Ray‘s reviews also appear on https://townepost.com/